Risk-based audits in a behavioural model.

The tools of predictive analytics are widely used in the analysis of large data sets to predict future patterns in the system. In particular, predictive analytics is used to estimate risk of engaging in certain behavior. Risk-based audits are used by revenue services to target potentially noncompliant taxpayers, but the results of predictive analytics serve predominantly only as a guide rather than a rule. “Auditor judgment” retains an important role in selecting audit targets. This article assesses the effectiveness of using predictive analytics in a model of the compliance decision that incorporates several components from behavioral economics: subjective beliefs about audit probabilities, a social custom reward from honest tax payment, and a degree of risk aversion that increases with age. Simulation analysis shows that predictive analytics are successful in raising compliance and that the resulting pattern of audits is very close to being a cutoff rule

Effects of daily herbage allowance and stage of lactation on the intake and performance of dairy cows in early summer

peer-reviewedThis research was part-funded by European Union Structural Funds (EAGGF).The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between daily herbage allowance (DHA) and the performance of dairy cows at two stages of lactation. Spring-calving (n=42, mean calving date 17 February) and autumn-calving (n=42, mean calving date 22 September) Friesian cows were divided into three equal groups and assigned to three levels of DHA (above a cutting height of 35 mm), 17 (L), 20 (M) and 23 (H) kg of dry matter (DM) per head, from late April to late June, 1996. The spring-calving cows grazed to sward heights (mm) of 47, 56 and 65 (s.e. 0.6) and residual herbage organic matter (OM) masses (above 35 mm) of 294, 408 and 528 (s.e. 12.1) kg/ha for L, M and H, respectively. The autumn-calving cows grazed to corresponding sward heights of 51, 60 and 69 (s.e. 1.1) mm and leftresidual herbage OM masses of 364, 445 and 555 (s.e. 12.9) kg/ha for L, M and H, respectively. Pastures were mechanically topped post grazing. Spring-calving cows consumed 13.3, 14.7 and 15.5 kg OM (s.e. 0.47) per day, and autumn-calving cows consumed 13.3, 13.8 and 14.9 kg OM (s.e. 0.43) per day for L, M and H, respectively. Mean daily solids-corrected milk yield was 23.1, 23.8 and 24.8 (s.e. 0.34) kg for the spring-calving cows, and 17.5, 18.4 and 18.7 (s.e. 0.35) kg for the autumncalving cows, for L, M and H, respectively. Milk yield could be predicted from preexperimental yield (PMY) and daily herbage organic matter allowance (DOMA, kg) according to the following equation: y = −1.13 + 0.76 (s.e. 0.030) PMY + 0.22 (s.e. 0.057) DOMA (r.s.d. 1.32, R2 0.89). The results indicate that high individual cow and herd production levels can be achieved from high quality herbage alone during early summer at a DHA of 23 kg DM for spring-calving cows and 20 kg DM for autumn-calving cows.European Unio

How fiscally tolerable is Thailand’s social security pension fund to early retirement decisions?

This research paper assesses the fiscal tolerability of the Thai Social Security Pension Fund to early retirement decisions, particularly among the workforce aged 50-54. Starting from 2014, the Social Security Pension Fund is due to pay regular monthly pension benefits to eligible insured persons. There has been increasing concern over the potentially high proportion of early retirees opting for one-time lump-sum old-age benefits instead of the more modest amount of monthly retirement pension. This can create severe shocks to the system. Forecasts and sensitivity analyses under alternative scenarios are conducted using an actuarial method. The estimation employs the latest 2010 National Economic and Social Development Board population forecast. In the worst case scenario, with an early retirement rate of 9 percent or higher per year, the tolerability of the system can be maintained for no longer than 25 years from now. The future generations risk facing a situation in which the old-age benefits may not be promptly received in the expected amount. This points to the important policy precaution that the currently high level of reserves in the Social Security Pension Fund does not ensure fiscal sustainability and tolerability as commonly believed. The result also implies that withdrawal from the social security pension fund by the government for other purposes is fiscally detrimental to life of the fund.Euamporn Phijaisanit, Gareth D Myle

Risk-Based Audits in a Behavioural Model

The tools of predictive analytics are widely used in the analysis of large data sets to predict future patterns in the system. In particular, predictive analytics is used to estimate risk of engaging in certain behavior. Risk-based audits are used by revenue services to target potentially noncompliant taxpayers, but the results of predictive analytics serve predominantly only as a guide rather than a rule. “Auditor judgment” retains an important role in selecting audit targets. This article assesses the effectiveness of using predictive analytics in a model of the compliance decision that incorporates several components from behavioral economics: subjective beliefs about audit probabilities, a social custom reward from honest tax payment, and a degree of risk aversion that increases with age. Simulation analysis shows that predictive analytics are successful in raising compliance and that the resulting pattern of audits is very close to being a cutoff rule

The approach to a superconductor-to-Bose-insulator transition in disordered films

Through a detailed study of scaling near the magnetic field-tuned superconductor-to-insulator transition in strongly disordered films, we find that results for a variety of materials can be collapsed onto a single phase diagram. The data display two clear branches, one with weak disorder and an intervening metallic phase, the other with strong disorder. Along the strongly disordered branch, the resistance at the critical point approaches $R_Q = h/4e^2$ and the scaling of the resistance is consistent with quantum percolation, and therefore with the predictions of the dirty boson model.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Cell–cell membrane fusion during mammalian fertilization

AbstractThe mechanism of sperm–egg fusion in mammals is a research area that has greatly benefited from the use of gene deletion technology. Because fertilization is internal in mammals and the gametes (particularly the eggs) are sparse in number, in vitro studies have considerable limitations. Using gene deletions, a few cell surface proteins in both gametes have been identified as essential for gamete fusion. Ongoing studies are directed at analysis of the function of these proteins and the search for additional proteins that may be involved in this process. So far, no mammalian proteins have been found that also function in sperm–egg fusion of non-mammalian species or in other types of cell–cell fusion

Self-employment income gap in Great Britain: How much and who?

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Oxford University Press via the DOI in this record.This paper utilises an expenditure survey-based data set that is rich in terms of observable characteristics to estimate the ‘income gap’ (defined to be one minus the proportion of reported to true income) of the self-employed in Great Britain. It also estimates the evasion response of the individual characteristics of the self-employed. It emerges that self-employed report, on average, around 80.4 percent of their income to the tax authority, which translates into an income-gap of 19.6 percent which varies significantly by sex, age, and region. In particular, male self-employed taxpayers underreport more than female ones, and they, in general, become more compliant as they age. Particular emphasis is paid to verifying that the income gap observed cannot be explained by other reasons than underreporting.This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) under grant no. ES/K005944/

Amphioxus SYCP1 : a case of retrogene replacement and co-option of regulatory elements adjacent to the ParaHox cluster

MGG was supported by the University of St Andrews School of Biology Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council DTG and the Wellcome Trust ISSF. Work in the authors’ laboratory is also supported by the Leverhulme Trust.Retrogenes are formed when an mRNA is reverse transcribed and re-inserted into the genome in a location unrelated to the original locus. If this retrocopy inserts into a transcriptionally favourable locus and is able to carry out its original function, it can, in rare cases, lead to retrogene replacement. This involves the original, often multi-exonic, parental copy being lost whilst the newer single-exon retrogene copy ‘replaces’ the role of the ancestral parent gene. One example of this is amphioxus SYCP1, a gene that encodes a protein used in synaptonemal complex formation during meiosis, and which offers the opportunity to examine how a retrogene evolves after the retrogene replacement event. SYCP1 genes exist as large multi-exonic genes in most animals. AmphiSYCP1, however, contains a single coding exon of ~3200bp and has inserted next to the ParaHox cluster of amphioxus, whilst the multi-exonic ancestral parental copy has been lost. Here, we show that AmphiSYCP1 has not only replaced its parental copy, but has evolved additional regulatory function by co- opting a bidirectional promoter from the nearby AmphiCHIC gene. AmphiSYCP1 has also evolved a de novo, multi-exonic 5’untranslated region that displays distinct regulatory states, in the form of two different isoforms, and has evolved novel expression patterns during amphioxus embryogenesis in addition to its ancestral role in meiosis. Absence of ParaHox-like expression of AmphiSYCP1, despite its proximity to the ParaHox cluster, also suggests this gene is not influenced by any potential pan-cluster regulatory mechanisms, which are seemingly restricted to only the ParaHox genes themselves.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Can authority be sustained while balancing accessibility and formality?

Economics has developed into a quantitative discipline that makes extensive use of mathematical and statistical concepts. When writing a dictionary for economics undergraduates it has to be recognised that many users will not have suffi cient training in mathematics to benefi t from formal defi nitions of mathematical and statistical concepts. In fact, it is more than likely that the user will want the dictionary to provide an accessible version of a defi nition that avoids mathematical notation. Providing a verbal description of a mathematical concept has the risk that the outcome is both verbose (compared to a defi nition using appropriate mathematical symbols) and imprecise. For the author of a dictionary this raises the question of how to resolve this confl ict between accessibility and formal correctness. We use a range of examples from the Oxford Dictionary of Economics to illustrate this confl ict and to assess the extent to which a non-formal defi nition can be viewed as authoritative.Nigar Hashimzade, Georgina A. Myles and Gareth D. Myle